Lately, like many people, I've been thinking about what AI will change. And one of the analogies that comes to mind is the beginning of the industrial revolution — the era of the first factories, like Ford's.
Before the era of factories, if a craftsman had to create, say, a gear shift knob, he would do it slowly and creatively. He would independently figure out what it should look like, what material to use, how to finish it. The entire process was creative — from idea to finished product.
Then the factories came. One person designed what the knob should look like and how it should be built. The rest of the workers participated in mass production — standing at the assembly line, performing repetitive tasks. Machines relieved them of physical effort — but took away their creativity.
I believe exactly the same thing will happen now with companies that employ people who have been working intellectually and creatively. Someone will design their tasks, and they will execute them in a somewhat assembly-line fashion — you get a task, you complete it, a new task appears. Less creativity, more repetition.
And just as in car factories more and more work was automated and gradually "taken away" from workers — the same will happen now. What people still need to do (because AI doesn't do it efficiently enough) will slowly be taken over by AI.
Of course, in Ford's factory there was and still is a creative role. Someone manages the whole factory. Someone designed what the new knob should look like. Someone figured out how machines and people should mass-produce it cheaply. That role will certainly remain now too.
But there will be far fewer positions that require constant creativity. Just as there were always incomparably fewer designers in factories than production workers.
I see three scenarios:
1. Plenty of work — perhaps we'll find new creative work for most people after all. Tedious, repetitive things will be handed over to AI, and people will only do what requires human imagination and empathy. Though honestly — I don't know if the job market will generate as many creative positions as will be needed.
2. Less work — most people's work will be less creative and more "assembly-line". Ideally, a workday would look something like this: a morning hour of relaxed work, coffee, meetings, conversations — then from hour X to Y, "assembly line" work, meaning we take tasks, complete them, deliver results — and then free time. And I hope that X–Y will gradually shrink, without reducing pay.
3. Even less work and the option not to work — perhaps we'll develop a universal basic income or widespread access to products and services that allow comfortable living without work. So that everyone can choose for themselves — whether to work additionally, or to devote their time to what truly interests them.
Regardless of the scenario — more and more intellectual work will be taken over by AI. And I hope that what we do about it will be better, not worse, for us.
I'm writing this from the perspective of the IT industry, where I've worked for years — and where I see these changes most clearly.
I'm curious how this post will age.
This article was written (perhaps unfortunately) with the help of AI — I wrote my thoughts, and an AI agent edited and published them.